Monte Carlo Simulation Retirement Calculator

Use our free monte carlo retirement calculator to stress-test your financial plan against thousands of market scenarios. Move beyond simple averages and understand your true probability of success with professional-grade monte carlo retirement planning.

1 Timeline

2 Portfolio

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3 Cashflows

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What is a Monte Carlo Retirement Simulation?

A Monte Carlo retirement simulation is a powerful mathematical technique used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. In retirement planning, it replaces fixed average return assumptions (like "7% per year") with thousands of random scenarios based on historical market volatility.

This monte carlo retirement planning approach helps you answer the critical question: Will I run out of money? - by showing you not just the average outcome, but the range of possible outcomes, including worst-case scenarios.

How to Use This Free Monte Carlo Retirement Calculator

  • Timeline: Enter your current age, planned retirement age, and life expectancy. We recommend planning to age 95 or 100 to be safe.
  • Portfolio: Input your current savings and define your asset allocation. You can use our ticker search to find stocks, ETFs (like VTI, BND), or crypto. Diversification typically reduces risk.
  • Cashflows: Estimate how much you'll save monthly until retirement, and how much you need to spend monthly in retirement (in today's dollars).
  • Advanced: Toggle "Sequence of Returns Risk" to test how a market crash right after you retire would impact your longevity.

Sequence of Returns Risk Explained

The order in which investment returns occur is crucial for retirees. This is known as Sequence of Returns Risk. If you experience negative returns early in retirement while simultaneously withdrawing money for living expenses, your portfolio balance can be depleted so severely that it never recovers, even if the market rallies later.

Our tool allows you to simulate "Worst Year First" scenarios to see if your plan is robust enough to survive a bear market at the start of your retirement.

Limitations and Disclaimer

Important: This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The projections generated by the Monte Carlo simulation are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.

The simulation uses historical data to model potential future performance. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Market conditions can change, and extreme events (black swans) can occur that are not reflected in historical datasets. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making major financial decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Yes, PinkLion's Monte Carlo retirement calculator is completely free. You can run up to 2,000 simulations to stress-test your retirement plan without any cost or sign-up requirement.
Yes, you can download your Monte Carlo retirement simulation as a CSV file by clicking the "Export to Excel" button in the results section. This file contains the yearly percentile data and summary statistics.
Monte Carlo simulation is considered one of the most robust methods for retirement planning because it accounts for volatility and sequence of returns risk, unlike simple average-return calculators. However, no model can perfectly predict the future, and results should be treated as estimates based on historical patterns or statistical assumptions.
A success rate of 85% or higher is generally considered "safe" by many financial planners. A rate below 75% suggests a significant risk of running out of money, meaning you may need to save more, spend less, or retire later.